Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-19 33.792446 40.048470 46.898521 54.924394 64.037309 74.029779 85.781185
2025-01-26 25.178954 33.649526 43.817074 56.780012 72.714818 91.504641 115.164019
2025-02-02 21.144549 30.931960 43.503739 60.527110 82.633025 110.002472 146.039397
2025-02-09 17.720640 28.072774 42.173808 62.263916 89.558471 124.708293 172.656359
2025-02-16 14.991992 25.556025 40.731622 63.348583 95.305384 137.863255 197.667392
2025-02-23 12.558357 22.985121 38.744775 63.243799 99.131081 148.396779 219.489090
2025-03-02 10.345087 20.336527 36.217998 61.937887 100.932413 156.014171 237.483541
2025-03-09 8.776940 18.454587 34.573247 61.668838 104.035715 165.411581 258.169786
2025-03-16 6.918710 15.712717 31.152618 58.200611 101.937870 167.042790 267.720807
2025-03-23 6.215242 14.972463 30.971642 59.869874 107.759931 180.457737 294.737938
2025-03-30 5.232700 13.498301 29.302841 58.850368 109.171186 187.225059 312.143506
2025-04-06 4.917967 13.343038 29.995591 61.907963 117.318369 204.579858 345.990930
2025-04-13 3.787796 11.270633 26.971187 58.406143 114.865138 206.139828 357.259885
2025-04-20 3.371689 10.753936 26.942601 60.400954 121.964376 223.352233 393.756236
2025-04-27 3.176961 10.733574 27.913960 64.343165 132.677490 246.876936 441.091375
2025-05-04 2.832526 10.241809 27.809197 66.168707 139.714219 264.665139 479.986520
2025-05-11 2.485688 9.651005 27.392844 67.308483 145.540169 280.657445 516.564943
2025-05-18 2.111324 8.871822 26.422908 67.198384 149.005551 292.767745 547.229375
2025-05-25 1.728816 7.941427 24.937192 65.826087 149.946193 300.523589 570.932715
2025-06-01 1.459731 7.287530 24.014396 65.543328 152.910927 311.866023 600.963005
2025-06-08 1.102966 6.175044 21.704322 61.897352 148.954065 310.705023 609.708761
2025-06-15 0.993523 5.960561 21.759944 63.652407 155.920527 329.416116 653.093744
2025-06-22 0.812329 5.373075 20.667434 62.580558 157.003344 337.419416 678.162536